[an error occurred while processing this directive]
人民大学学报
       首页  |  期刊介绍  |  编 委 会  |  期刊订阅  |  投稿指南  |  数据库收录  |  期刊获奖  |  广告服务  |  留言板  |  联系我们  |  English
中国人民大学学报 2017, Vol. 31 Issue (6) :24-35    DOI:
学术前沿 最新目录 | 下期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 << | >>
中国就业景气指数的构建、预测及就业形势判断——基于网络招聘大数据的研究
耿林,毛宇飞
中国人民大学劳动人事学院
Construction of China Employment Market Prosperity Index (CIER) and Employment Situation Analysis Based on CIER——Research Based on Large Data on Network Recruitment
GENG Lin,MAO Yu-fei
School of Labor and Human Resources,Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872
Download: PDF (8591KB)   HTML (1KB)   Export: BibTeX or EndNote (RIS)      Supporting Info
摘要 中国人民大学中国就业研究所与中国领先职业发展平台智联招聘联合推出了中国就业市场景气指数(CIER)。该指数通过观测不同行业、城市职位供需指标的动态变化,反映就业市场上职位空缺与求职人数的比例变化,能够起到监测中国就业市场景气程度以及就业信心的作用。选取2011年第1季度至2017年第1季度的CIER数据,运用季节分解法、HP滤波、VAR模型等时间序列分析方法进行的分析表明,CIER指数与宏观经济景气指标具有密切的联动关系。该指数不仅能够比较灵敏地反映中国就业市场的长期、中期及短期的动态变化特征,而且对宏观经济景气程度也具有较好的敏感性,因此,可以作为监测宏观经济景气程度的辅助指标。
Service
把本文推荐给朋友
加入我的书架
加入引用管理器
Email Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
耿林
毛宇飞
关键词中国就业市场景气指数    向量自回归模型    季节分解法    HP滤波法     
Abstract: The China Institute for Employment Research of Renmin University of China and Zhaopin ltd., a leading professional development platform in the country, jointly launched CIER ( China employment market prosperity index ), which reflected the overall trend of the employment market. The index, constructed on the basis of  the big data on recruitment of Zhaopin Ltd. ( zhaopin. com ), can reflect the change of the ratio of job vacancies to job seekers in the job market through analyzing the dynamics of labor supply and labor employment of different industries, different urban and different positions, and can monitor the prosperity of Chinas employment market and the confidence in the employment market. The authors selected CIER data from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2017, using seasonal decomposition method, HP filtering method, VAR model to analyze the relationship between CIER and the macro economic prosperity index (PMI). The results show that CIER has close relationship with PMI. The authors predicted the trend of the CIER index for the next three quarters in 2017 using seasonal decomposition method,and analyzed the overall employment situation of China under the background of supplyside reform, and the employment structure of different industries, cities and regions, and put forward relevant policy suggestions.
KeywordsChina employment market prosperity index(CIER) ,   purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry(PMI) ,   vector autoregressive model (VAR) ,   seasonal decomposition method ,   HP filtering method
     
基金资助:
 
 
作者简介: 耿林:中国人民大学劳动人事学院助理教授,中国就业研究所副研究员;毛宇飞:中国人民大学劳动人事学院博士研究生(北京 100872)
引用本文:   
耿林, 毛宇飞 .中国就业景气指数的构建、预测及就业形势判断——基于网络招聘大数据的研究[J]  中国人民大学学报, 2017,V31(6): 24-35
GENG Lin, MAO Yu-fei .Construction of China Employment Market Prosperity Index (CIER) and Employment Situation Analysis Based on CIER——Research Based on Large Data on Network Recruitment[J]  Journal of Renmin University of China, 2017,V31(6): 24-35
链接本文:  
http://xsqks.ruc.edu.cn/Jweb_rdxb/CN/      或     http://xsqks.ruc.edu.cn/Jweb_rdxb/CN/Y2017/V31/I6/24
 
没有本文参考文献
没有找到本文相关文献
Copyright 2010 by 人民大学学报